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January 03, 2007

Futurehype is an interesting book

Futurehype by Bob Seidensticker is an interesting book and there are excerpts at his website

He does point out some problems that make technology and societal predictions hard. However, I believe it is possible to be quite accurate.

I agree with him that understanding the past and the past of technology matters.
I agree with him that details and downsides of products and technology matters.
I agree with him that we cannot ignore the infrastructure that exists and how quickly it might be improved or how much investment is needed to keep infrastructure from degrading.

However, I do clearly see technology that is being worked on and developed and which will have a more profound impact on society than Bob believes will happen.

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