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January 06, 2006

Comparing CMOS versus rod-logic and other nanotechnology computing devices

When comparing the costs, performance, energy requirements the additional limitations of CMOS are that you still mainly have fairly large chips that have to be put into fairly large form factor devices.

Rod-logic in a pure molecular manufactured systems would have far less size overhead.

Rod-logic can be three-dimensional which greatly increases its likely performance.

The amount of computing in a volume for CMOS, you can only make something so small if for CMOS you have to have the chip + power supplies + supporting logic chips + connections + packaging + cooling + substrates etc... the all in size (including overhead) and costs.

There is still the attempt at Ball semiconductor to make, spherical chips. Seems to have had very little progress over the last 5 years.
http://www.ballsemi.com/

Multiple layered chips and reversible computing do not seem to be discussed in the roadmap.

Another separate thing is the hybrid NRAM memory. Nantero and LSI logic.. Those companies say they will have sample production this year and full scale production next year. A loop of nanotube for each silicon circuit to hold the charge..making DRAM nonvolatile.

Part II: Semiconductor roadmap looks at nanotechnology

The International technology roadmap for Semiconductors
2005 edition Emergy Research devices

http://www.itrs.net/Common/2005ITRS/ERD2005.pdf

There is an very interesting technology performance assessment pg48-55
Nano-floating gate memory(pg50), engineered tunnel barrier
memory(pg50), 1D logic structures (pg53) (carbon nanotubes and
nanowires) seem to be the leading candidates based on this assessment.

Table 55 on page 8
compares the current technology capabilities in 2005 and
the projected 2018 capability

Table 57 on page 10 and Table 63 on page 43 compares emerging technologies
Table 63 on page 43 has estimated parameters for the emerging tech for 2016

The nano related are
nano-floating gate memory (discussed on page 12)
Molecular memory on page 13
Nano-electro-mechanical systems (NEMS - rod-logic) only 2 dimensional rod logic considered page 44

Table 59 emerging logic devices on page 16

Properties needed and challenges of new devices is discussed pg 28-35

Part I : Semiconductor technology roadmap for 2005 - considers emerging nanotech

By the naming convention of these roadmaps...NEMS is rod logic.

The emerging research devices section considers molecular devices, rod logic systems, nanotubes and nanowires and other nanotechnology related technology.

Page 44 of the emerging research devices section. They define nano-electro-mechanical systems (NEMS) as rod logic.
They have a conservative estimate of rod logic performance.
They also assume 2-D architecture for rod logic (NEMS)

In table 59 of the emerging tech... the best cycle times expected in 2016 are for all optical computer or a quantum computer if they pan out. (optical 10**12 to 10**16; Quantum 10**15 to 10**16)
Molecular, NEMS and quantum are more energy efficient
Only molecular is projected to be better on cost/gate.

They do not see advanced CMOS being beaten on all factors of speed, cost and energy in 2016.
Some of the tech they think can get them to 61GHz (circuit - logic speed)..switching speeds up to the terahertz range.

http://www.itrs.net/Common/2005ITRS/ExecSum2005.pdf

In the main exec summary, they have a lot of detail but it boils down continuation of trends... double the features per square centimeter every two years and 29% cost reduction for equal
stuff each year from generation to generation and 45%/year in the same generation.

January 03, 2006

Other tech: Mass marketing video headsets with Video iPod : $599, 2006

eMagin Corp. has developed a wearable headset system that plugs into Apple Computer's video iPod and displays video from it in front of one eye, using optical technology designed to give the picture a higher resolution and make it appear larger than on the iPod's screen. Using the EyeBud headset is akin to watching a 105-inch display from 12 feet away. The EyeBud uses the same underlying technology as eMagin's more advanced Z800 3DVisor, an existing system that retails for $899. eMagin has had total sales of $10 million in sales over the last ten years with $15 million in annual losses.

The wearable video headset market is projected to be a $1 billion market by 2009

Assuming that the video iPod (as well of personal displays for cellphones and other applications) is very successful and sales volume of video display headsets increase. Then the price of wearable headsets would likely drop into the $200 or less range in 2008.