In the timeframe from 2009 to 2011 we will know whether the new efforts to lower launch costs has been successful. Spacex plans to get costs down to $3000/kg to Low earth orbit (LEO) and $8000/kg to Geosynchronous orbit
China is developing the Long March 5 rocket which should be able to put 25 tons into LEO in 2010-2012. The current Long March 4 rockets cost about $110million to launch. The Long March 2E booster can place 12,000kg into LEO. China's launch costs are about $1000/kg.