September 27, 2006

My Quantum computing Long Bet Prediction

I have made a long bet prediction. This costs $50. Anyone is free to challenge this prediction and a long bet can be negotiated.

There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010

Since some money is on the line and potentially more money, I have decided to give my prediction some cushion. I am pretty sure that Dwave Systems will come through but just in case they have problems... I have left some time for ion traps and electron bubbles to make it as well.

I think Dwave Systems should come through with at least 64 qubits in 2007 and 128 qubits or better in 2008.

At least, 155 Computer Science IEEE fellows apparently have said that this prediction will be wrong

Will a quantum computer reach the market? (199 computer science respondents)
Seventy-eight percent of respondents doubt that a commercial quantum computer will reach the market in the next 50 years.
Unlikely 42.7%
Equal chances 25.1%
Likely 22.1%


Jonathan Pugh said...

I won't take you up on that bet. DWave sounds very promising.

I read that magazine that had the IEEE predictions from all of the different fields. I was very surprised at how skeptical most of these people were! Most IEEE fellows believed that following were unlikely in the next 50 years:

Commercial quantum computers
Self driving cars
Photovoltaics >= 50% efficiency

Additionally, most IEEE fellows also believed that the Moore's law wall would be reached in the next 20 years. I believe that this would indicate the end of exponential growth in computing...

There were a couple other technologies that were dismissed that I was surprised at too. Interestingly, the biology section seemed to be the most optimistic amongst all of the different fields. I guess that means that I am either very dillusional, or these IEEE fellows just aren't able to look past today into the probable possibilities of tomorrow.

Brian, what do you think of their optimism on the adoptation of fuel cells in the future? With all this talk of progress of ultracapacitors, do you think that fuel cells will be as big as they think?