Cambridge Energy Research Associates’ (CERA) July, 2006 projects global oil productive capacity rising from 88.7 mbd in 2006 to 110 mbd in 2015. 94.8 mbd by 2008, 102mbd by 2010. About two thirds of the increase would be from OPEC.
They identified five primary factors affecting strong capacity growth:
* High oil prices and strong competition for access to reserves and pressures on the service sector
* The search for new sources of conventional crude and non-traditional supply
* Increasing global gas productive capacity driving up the volumes of associated liquids
* The pace and scale of deepwater discoveries and development
* E&P company diversification
Here is a critique of this projection at one of the peak oil sites