January 06, 2006

Part I : Semiconductor technology roadmap for 2005 - considers emerging nanotech

By the naming convention of these roadmaps...NEMS is rod logic.

The emerging research devices section considers molecular devices, rod logic systems, nanotubes and nanowires and other nanotechnology related technology.

Page 44 of the emerging research devices section. They define nano-electro-mechanical systems (NEMS) as rod logic.
They have a conservative estimate of rod logic performance.
They also assume 2-D architecture for rod logic (NEMS)

In table 59 of the emerging tech... the best cycle times expected in 2016 are for all optical computer or a quantum computer if they pan out. (optical 10**12 to 10**16; Quantum 10**15 to 10**16)
Molecular, NEMS and quantum are more energy efficient
Only molecular is projected to be better on cost/gate.

They do not see advanced CMOS being beaten on all factors of speed, cost and energy in 2016.
Some of the tech they think can get them to 61GHz (circuit - logic speed)..switching speeds up to the terahertz range.

http://www.itrs.net/Common/2005ITRS/ExecSum2005.pdf

In the main exec summary, they have a lot of detail but it boils down continuation of trends... double the features per square centimeter every two years and 29% cost reduction for equal
stuff each year from generation to generation and 45%/year in the same generation.

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